Exogeneity 2026-11-05
In linear regression, a common mean-exogeneity condition is : after conditioning on the design matrix, the regression error has zero conditional expectation. For a full-column-rank design, ordinary least squares satisfies , so this condition gives without requiring constant error variance.
A weaker condition, , states an unconditional moment restriction and is not identical to zero conditional mean. If an omitted variable contributes to the regression error and is correlated with a predictor, either condition can fail. Exogeneity must therefore be stated relative to a specified model and information set; it does not by itself turn an associational regression into a causal effect.
Regression error 2026-11-05
In a linear regression model , the regression error is the unobserved discrepancy between the response and the model's systematic component. The assumption makes the conditional expectation of given ; it does not follow merely from writing the equation.
For a scalar response , an observation has error one if the stated coefficients are the true model coefficients. A regression residual instead uses fitted coefficients: . Errors and residuals therefore answer different questions. In ordinary least squares, holds algebraically when the fit exists, even though need not be zero for a realized statistical sample. Assuming independence or constant variance of the errors is a further modeling choice.