Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use for the premium income rate, reserving later for the smaller exponential decay rate. In the classical risk model, the surplus isHere is the relative safety loading. The aggregate claims form a Compound Poisson process. Define , so ruin occurs when . By independent increments and the exponential formula for a marked Poisson sum,Thus is a nonnegative continuous-time martingale with , because the adjustment coefficient makes the exponent vanish.
Let . Apply the optional stopping theorem at the bounded stopping time . On , , soLetting increase proves the Lundberg inequality and the unscaled limit:
For the precise asymptotic, putThe given exponential integral identity makes a probability density. Multiplying the given defective renewal equation by turns it into the ordinary renewal equationFor clarity, the version of the key renewal theorem used here is: if the interarrival law is nonarithmetic, has mean , and is directly Riemann integrable, the locally bounded solution of this renewal equation satisfies . The infinite-mean version gives zero for nonnegative directly Riemann integrable .
All the hypotheses can be checked here. The density gives a nonarithmetic distribution. The Tonelli theorem givesFurthermoreThus is continuous and integrable, and . On a mesh of width , the difference between its upper and lower sums is at most ; its upper sum is at most . This proves direct Riemann integrability rather than assuming it. Also by the Lundberg inequality, so the solution is locally bounded. Its renewal representation is , where and ; the residual after iteration tends to zero on compact intervals because sums of positive interarrivals tend to infinity.
Writing , the tilted interarrival expected value is . The key renewal theorem gives the Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptoticIf , the same formula is interpreted as . A positive finite asymptotic constant requires ; this extra integrability is not explicitly stated in the paper.
For the final two-exponential case, evaluate the defective renewal equation at zero:One can identify the adjustment coefficient without silently assuming . For , setIt is finite and positive. Integrating the nonnegative terms of the defective renewal equation, using the Tonelli theorem, first shows that is finite and then givesAs , because . By monotone convergence theorem, . The integrated tail distribution in the classical risk model has density , so by the tail integral formula for moments. Hence solves the adjustment equation, and its stipulated uniqueness implies . Finally the displayed form of gives the remaining constantsIn particular the decay exponent and the coefficient do not affect or . The in these final answers is the printed decay rate, not .
For positive claims with finite nonzero expected value , the function is continuous and strictly increasing on the positive finite-transform domain, starting at . If diverges at a finite upper endpoint, or is finite for all positive arguments, the secant slope tends to infinity. In the latter case use for some of positive tail probability. Every target with positive relative safety loading therefore has exactly one positive root.
Two-exponential-mixture survival probability 2026-10-14
In the classical risk model with density and relative safety loading , the claim mean is and . The convolution terms satisfy . Applying to yields . Its solution is fixed by , and , giving the displayed probability. The derivative condition comes from the original integral equation and excludes spurious solutions of the higher-order equation.
Ultimate ruin with exponential claims 2026-10-14
For rate- exponential distribution claims and , the ruin integro-differential equation reduces to . Differentiate the convolution and use its equation to eliminate it. Positive relative safety loading implies as , and the zero-capital survival probability gives . These two conditions determine the displayed solution. The adjustment coefficient is .
Zero-capital survival probability 2026-10-06
In a classical risk model with positive relative safety loading, zero initial capital has ultimate survival probability , where is the claim-arrival rate, the claim expected value and the premium rate. It depends on the claim law through its mean alone. It is not the event of never receiving a claim: premium accumulates between arrivals.