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Two-exponential-mixture survival probability (ϕ(u)=1−9e−u/16−e−3u/16)

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Actuarial statistics Classical risk model Ultimate ruin probability Ruin integro-differential equation
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
In the classical risk model with density 3e−4x+e−2x/2 and relative safety loading 3/5, the claim mean is 5/16 and λ/c=2. The convolution terms Aa​(u)=∫0u​ϕ(u−x)e−axdx satisfy Aa′​=ϕ−aAa​. Applying (D+4)(D+2) to ϕ′=2ϕ−6A4​−A2​ yields ϕ(3)+4ϕ′′+3ϕ′=0. Its solution is fixed by ϕ(∞)=1, ϕ(0)=3/8 and ϕ′(0)=3/4, giving the displayed probability. The derivative condition comes from the original integral equation and excludes spurious solutions of the higher-order equation.

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  1. Ruin integro-differential equation
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2001 / iii / Paper 27 / 2 / Solution

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