Terminal censoring and survival-mean identifiability Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
If the last observed follow-up is a censoring time and the Kaplan–Meier estimator remains positive there, the observed curve does not determine the remaining tail area. Many possible completions give different full means, including finite and infinite ones. A horizontal plotting extension is not proof that the true mean is infinite. If the final risk set is exhausted by events, its Kaplan–Meier estimator factor is zero and the conventional fitted curve has finite area. This includes a unique last individual having an event, but an event tied with terminal censoring can leave a positive fitted survivor value when events are processed before censoring. The random endpoint still does not establish a population support bound. A restricted mean survival time avoids unsupported tail completion.
In an untied Cox proportional-hazards model with a single subject remaining after all other observed exit times, that subject's event contributes the constant factor one to Cox partial likelihood. Replacing its terminal censoring time by a later event therefore preserves the fitted coefficients and every earlier Breslow estimator increment. At its new event, the subject's fitted cumulative hazard increases by one, cancelling the increase of one in its event indicator. Every martingale residual is unchanged. This property relies on the subject being alone in the terminal risk set and the same covariate history being retained.
Zero sum of Cox martingale residuals Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
When a Cox proportional-hazards model uses the Breslow estimator, the sum of fitted martingale residuals is zero. Each estimated baseline hazard jump redistributes one observed event across its risk set, so summing cumulative fitted intensities equals summing observed event counts. The identity holds for any finite regression coefficient used consistently in both calculations.