Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 206 5 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
For a known mean zero, a common sample autocovariance function convention isThe weakly stationary process property gives , soThe lag-zero estimate is unbiased, but at nonzero lags the divisor causes a finite-sample multiplicative bias. An alternative convention uses instead; for that convention the expectation is exactly . These are two normalizations of the sample autocovariance function, so the divisor must be specified. Here no estimated-mean centering term occurs because zero is known. Replacing zero by a sample mean would introduce additional bias terms. Extend to negative lags by symmetry; there are no observed lagged pairs for .
Sample partial autocorrelation function 2026-10-06
Replace the autocovariance in the finite-lag linear prediction equations by the sample autocovariance function. The last regression coefficient at order estimates the lag- partial autocorrelation function.