Differencing 2026-10-06
The difference can remove a unit-root stochastic trend. A seasonal difference operator instead subtracts an observation a full seasonal period earlier. Neither operation automatically removes a changing variance.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 36 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Series 1 wanders over a changing level rather than fluctuating around a stable local mean. Its sample autocorrelation function is strongly positive and decreases very slowly. This is the usual diagnostic evidence for an ordinary unit root: an autoregressive polynomial containing , with a zero at , and a stationary model after first differencing. The plots support an integrated model, rather than specifying the number of its remaining stationary autoregressive or moving-average terms.
Series 2 has a pronounced oscillation with period about six observations. Its sample autocorrelation alternates between large positive and negative values with little damping: approximately positive at multiples of six and negative halfway between. Together with the changing amplitude, this suggests a conjugate pair of unit-circle zeros nearThe associated real autoregressive factor is . A targeted filter removes this pair; the broader seasonal difference operator also contains it but introduces additional differencing factors. This is the oscillatory unit-root diagnosis from an undamped sample autocorrelation.
Thus Series 1 suggests a zero at 1; Series 2 suggests a conjugate pair on the unit circle at a seasonal frequency. These are model diagnoses, not deductions of exact roots from a finite sample. A stationary model very close to a unit root can look similar, and an undamped periodic covariance can also arise from a stationary random sinusoid. The figure does not identify exact orders or prove nonstationarity by itself.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 208 3 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Put and assume . ThenThus generally has a periodic mean, and generally has a periodic variance. The edge cases allowed by matter: is stationary when , because the mean is then constant, and is stationary for or . In the latter case multiplying iid centered Gaussian white noise by leaves its iid distribution unchanged. For every , but , so is nonstationary. For , is nonstationary because is not constant.
Use the seasonal difference operator . Since ,This is a stationary moving-average model of iid Gaussian white noise. Its covariance is at lag , at lags , and zero otherwise.
For the variance-modulated process the same operation givesIts variance is and its covariance at lag is . Therefore it remains nonstationary for , and the operation doubles the marginal variance at nonzero seasons. Seasonal differencing does not remove periodic variance: it removes a periodic mean, but the periodic variance generally remains. Practical alternatives are a periodic model or seasonal variance standardization; at seasons with the observations are deterministically zero, so division by is not possible there. For the already stationary special cases , filtering preserves stationarity.
A periodically correlated process with period has its mean and two-time covariance unchanged when both times are shifted by . For , the mean is zero andHence is a periodically correlated process. Its covariance period can be smaller than : when is even, , so is already a covariance period.
Seasonality 2026-10-06
Seasonality is systematic repetition at a calendar period. It can appear in a deterministic mean, in a periodic variance, or in dependence across seasons. A seasonal difference operator removes a fixed periodic mean but seasonal differencing does not remove periodic variance. A periodic-looking path alone does not prove a nonstationary process.