Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 208 3 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The labels in PDF Figure 2 match as follows:Series has a wandering level and an overall upward drift. Its empirical autocorrelation function stays close to and declines very slowly, matching panel ; this is characteristic of a trend or a record from a unit-root autoregressive process. Such an empirical ACF is not a population stationary ACF if the underlying model is a random walk.
Series shows relatively smooth runs of adjacent observations on the same side of its level. Positive short-lag dependence emphasizes low frequencies, matching the decreasing spectrum .
Series is rougher, with much more rapid fluctuation. Negative short-lag dependence emphasizes high frequencies, matching the increasing spectrum . A negative-coefficient AR(1), for example, has this type of spectrum; the figure does not uniquely identify its exact order or parameters.
Series has conspicuous seasonality. Its autocorrelation function should alternate between positive peaks at full seasonal periods and negative troughs between them, matching . Here “characteristic function” is used descriptively for an ACF or spectrum, rather than for the probability-theoretic characteristic function of a random variable.