A self-complementary RNA duplex population describes how identical RNA strands are distributed between free strands and duplexes under specified conditions. A fraction of strands in duplexes differs from a fraction of molecular objects that are duplexes. The distinction matters when comparing chemical mass balances with observed signals.
For the ideal equilibrium , let and . With dimensionless association constant and reference molar concentration , define . The strand balance gives
This is the population model underlying ideal self-complementary RNA duplex melting. It assumes separated strands and duplexes are the only relevant species and that chemical equilibrium is reached.
The concentration regimes are illuminating. For , ; for , . An original calculation gives at and at . Even a large association parameter leaves some free strands in this equilibrium model.
An original finite-count illustration has 100 strands,80 of which belong to 40 duplexes, with 20 free strands left. The paired-strand fraction is 0.8, but duplexes are of the 60 molecular objects. A detector responding equally to each object would not give the same signal as a detector responding equally per strand. RNA optical melting needs a model of the folded and unfolded optical responses to infer populations.
Differentiating the equilibrium relation gives
At , a small 10% relative change in changes by approximately 0.0167. Population is therefore not generally proportional to concentration.
Competing RNA hairpins require an expanded species balance. A primary tetraloop study evaluated hairpin and duplex formation explicitly when designing sequences for melting experiments.[ref] Ignoring a populated competitor can produce a precise solution to the wrong balance equation.

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