A formulation of stochastic Einstein locality restricts an event's objective chance to its relevant causal past, rather than spacelike-separated interventions or facts. Different versions constrain either marginal chances or joint conditional probabilities. A one-wing marginal condition alone does not supply outcome independence. To derive a Bell theorem by this route, the proposed locality assumptions must include the appropriate screening-off relation for the two outcomes, together with a common setting-independent past distribution.
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