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The Felsenstein pruning algorithm computes a site likelihood function by sum-product belief propagation from leaves to root. For a finite-state Markov kernel $K$, the subtree likelihood function obeys $L_v(a)={\prod }_{w\text{ child of }v}{\sum }_{b}K(a,b)L_w(b)$, with observed-state indicators at leaves. Summing against the root probability distribution gives the site likelihood function. An outward pass gives edge posterior probabilities and expected transition counts for the expectation-maximization algorithm.

A junction tree connects the maximal cliques of a chordal graph into a tree satisfying the running intersection property. Its edges carry separators equal to the intersections of the endpoint cliques. Assigning original factors to containing cliques permits exact sum-product belief propagation without summing independently over the entire collection of variables.

Assign each factor exactly once to a containing clique and multiply the factors there into ${\psi }_i$. The displayed sum-product belief propagation message sums out variables of $C_i$ outside the separator $S_{ij}=C_i\cap C_j$. By the running intersection property, eliminating all variables in the subtree on the $i$ side creates precisely this function of the separator. An inward pass computes the normalizing constant at the root; an outward pass produces marginal distributions. For pedigree likelihoods, observed genotypes and penetrance factors simply multiply the relevant potentials.

The posterior mean of the number infected isRun sum-product belief propagation on the tree to compute every exact one-vertex posterior marginal. Summing their probabilities of state one gives the requested mean. Messages have fixed size and every directed edge is processed once, so the exact computation costs