Choose one random variable with the continuous uniform distribution on , and reuse it in every event:
Each probability is , so their harmonic series diverges, just as in summable and harmonic event probabilities. But the events are decreasing: . For every outcome , all indices with fail. Only finitely many events occur on that outcome. The limsup of events is exactly , a zero-probability event. This is a concrete closed-interval version of the shrinking-interval dependence example.[ref]
The missing assumption is visible already in two events. For , their intersection is , hence
Moreover, the whole tail union is just , with probability . This calculation explains directly why divergence alone fails: overlapping events keep spending their individual probabilities on the same outcomes.
Let be the total number of occurrences, a sum of indicator random variables. Although almost surely, Tonelli theorem gives . More explicitly, for : very small positive values of give very long, but finite, initial runs. Infinite expected value does not imply a positive probability of an infinite count.
Figure 1.
Equal harmonic event probabilities with fresh independent inputs or one shared input
. Each row is one finite simulation of the indicator random variables of for ; a dot means the event occurred. Fresh independent random variables allow scattered returns; a shared uniform random variable yields an initial run followed by zeros. The horizontal axis uses a logarithmic scale to show early runs clearly. These finite simulations illustrate the two models and cannot prove infinitely many occurrences or eventual stopping. Details.