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Summable and harmonic event probabilities
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Shared-uniform counterexample to the second Borel-Cantelli lemma
2026-10-14
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Choose one
random variable
U
with the
continuous uniform distribution
on
[
0
,
1
]
, and reuse it in every
event
:
A
n
=
{
U
≤
n
+
1
1
}
,
n
≥
1.
(1)
Each
probability
is
1/
(
n
+
1
)
, so their
harmonic series
diverges, just
as
in
summable and harmonic event probabilities
. But the
events
are decreasing:
A
n
+
1
⊆
A
n
. For every outcome
U
=
u
>
0
, all indices with
n
+
1
>
1/
u
fail. Only finitely many
events
occur on that outcome. The
limsup of events
is exactly
{
U
=
0
}
,
a
zero-probability event
. This is
a
concrete closed-interval version of the shrinking-interval dependence example.
[ref]
Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett
. §2.
3
, Example
2
.
3
.
6
, printed
p
. 70: shrinking intervals with divergent total
probability
The missing assumption is visible already in two
events
. For
i
<
j
, their
intersection
is
A
j
, hence
P
(
A
i
∩
A
j
)
=
j
+
1
1
=
(
i
+
1
)
(
j
+
1
)
1
=
P
(
A
i
)
P
(
A
j
)
.
(2)
Moreover, the whole tail
union
is just
A
m
, with
probability
1/
(
m
+
1
)
→
0
. This
calculation
explains directly why
divergence
alone fails: overlapping
events
keep spending their individual
probabilities
on the same outcomes.
Let
N
=
∑
n
≥
1
1
A
n
be the total
number
of occurrences,
a
sum
of
indicator random variables
. Although
N
<
∞
almost surely
,
Tonelli theorem
gives
E
[
N
]
=
∑
n
≥
1
1/
(
n
+
1
)
=
∞
. More explicitly,
P
(
N
≥
k
)
=
1/
(
k
+
1
)
for
k
≥
1
: very small positive values of
U
give very long, but finite, initial runs. Infinite
expected value
does not imply
a
positive
probability
of an infinite count.
Figure 1.
Equal
harmonic
event
probabilities
with fresh independent inputs or one shared input
. Each row is one finite
simulation
of the
indicator random variables
of
A
n
for
1
≤
n
≤
120
;
a
dot
means
the
event
occurred. Fresh
independent random variables
allow scattered returns;
a
shared
uniform random variable
yields an initial run followed by zeros. The horizontal axis
uses
a
logarithmic scale
to show early runs clearly. These finite
simulations
illustrate the two
models
and cannot prove infinitely many occurrences or eventual stopping.
Details
.
Total
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:
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