Gauss-Markov theorem Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
Let with a fixed full column rank design matrix, and . Then ordinary least squares is a best linear unbiased estimator: every response-linear unbiased estimator has at least as much variance in every coefficient direction. A normal distribution is unnecessary.[ref]
The Truth about Linear Regression by Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. Chapter 21, section 21.3, printed pp. 363–365
For a proof put . A competing estimator is unbiased for every exactly when . Write ; then , so the cross terms vanish andThis positive semidefinite matrix inequality proves the simultaneous directional comparison. The scope is linear unbiased estimators, not all conceivable estimators: a biased ridge regression estimate may improve mean squared error for some signals. With correlated or unequal-variance errors, the corresponding known-covariance result uses generalized least squares.