Three-level discount equilibrium with geometric annual counts ($\pi =\frac{(q^2(1+p),pq,p^2)}{1-p^{2}q},p+q=1$)

Suppose annual claim counts are independent with geometric distribution mass $p{q}^j$, $j\ge 0$. In a no claims discount system with discounts $0,\alpha ,\beta$, a claim returns either of the first two levels to zero; at the top, one claim sends the level to $\alpha$ and two or more send it to zero. The transition matrix is $\left(\begin{array}{ccc}q& p& 0\\ q& 0& p\\ q^2& pq& p\end{array}\right)$. Solving $\pi P=\pi$ gives the displayed stationary distribution. With full premium $c$, the stationary expected value of the premium is $c[1-(\alpha pq+\beta p^2)/(1-p^{2}q)]$. Independent annual sampling is essential; a persistent random intensity does not justify this marginal transition matrix.