Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 29 5 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Label each parent's two allele copies by its realized transmission: let be the transmitted and untransmitted alleles of the first parent and those of the second. Under random mating and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, the four parental allele draws are independent with population frequencies . Random Mendelian segregation merely swaps the two independent copies within each parent, so the transmitted/untransmitted labelled pair still has probability ; the second pair has probability .
The child receives . If is its disease event, its penetrance is and its overall disease probability is . ThereforeThis proves the transmitted and untransmitted alleles under multiplicative penetrance factorization. Under these assumptions, the transmitted pair has the affected-case distribution, while the complementary pair has the population distribution and is independent of the transmitted pair. It is the family pseudo-control genotype.
As in part (a), the formula records labelled transmissions. When observed genotypes are unordered, sum over every compatible parental-origin transmission. This includes multiplicities for overlapping parental alleles or two heterozygous parents producing a heterozygous child; it avoids interpreting one product as the total probability of all observationally identical configurations. The homogeneous random-mating model is also essential to the unconditional independence: mixing ancestry strata can correlate the case and pseudo-control through their shared family background.