Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 43 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write and . The discrete Fourier transform coefficient is . Alternatively, by the given orthogonality relations, the harmonic obtained by linear least-squares projection has coefficients and . Thus the source's periodogram is the squared amplitude of a fitted harmonic, scaled as power per unit angular frequency:It measures how much of the centered record varies at frequency . For odd , Fourier Parseval identity givesThe positive-frequency spacing is , so summing the power ordinates times this spacing estimates the total variance. The factor corresponds to the one-sided spectral density on ; the usual two-sided periodogram is half as large.
If the observations are Gaussian white noise with common variance , the harmonic sums are jointly normally distributed. Their means are zero even with a nonzero constant series mean, because each sine and cosine sums to zero. Orthogonality givesUncorrelated coordinates of a multivariate normal distribution are independent. Therefore all and are independent standard normals, andSince the chi-squared distribution with two degrees of freedom has mean two and variance four,Here is the one-sided white-noise spectral density. Its exact unbiasedness is accompanied by a nonconcentrating distribution: along Fourier frequencies tending to any interior frequency, has the same nondegenerate exponential law at every . It therefore does not converge in probability to one, proving failure of statistical consistency, not just nonvanishing variance.
For a general stationary process, exact finite-sample unbiasedness is not implied. Expanding the Fourier square instead giveswhere is the autocovariance function. Under suitable short-memory regularity this tends to at frequencies . The periodogram is thus generally asymptotically unbiased, while the exact assertion above is for white noise.
Use local periodogram smoothing to reduce variance: average neighboring ordinates with weights summing to one, where but . At an interior frequency the shrinking frequency window makes the bias tend to zero for smooth , while averaging many weakly dependent ordinates makes the variance of order . For white noise with equal weights, the ordinates are exactly independent and the variance is exactly . For a general process, impose suitable short-memory and fourth-order dependence assumptions, such as a stationary Gaussian model with sufficiently summable autocovariances. These conditions, together with smoothness, give a consistent smoothed estimator. Boundary frequencies require an appropriately one-sided or reflected window.
Smooth spectral density alone is not enough. For example let , where is a nondegenerate random variable constant throughout the record, independent of independent unit-variance Gaussian , with . The unconditional autocovariance is zero off lag zero and its one-sided spectral density is the smooth constant . Nevertheless a long local average estimates the realized , not that deterministic unconditional value. This nonergodic example explains why a dependence/ergodicity condition accompanies the smoothing argument.
For the turning point test of randomness, the null is independent identically distributed continuous observations. Let be one if is a strict local maximum or minimum among , for , and set . Three ranks are equally likely; the middle observation is an extremum in four of the six orders, giving and . ThereforeIndicators more than two positions apart depend on disjoint observations and are independent. For neighboring indicators, both are one precisely when four observations alternate up-down-up or down-up-down. By the probability-integral transform, use four independent uniforms. The first pattern has probabilityhere , , with the two outer inequalities having probabilities and . The reverse pattern has the same probability, so and .
At separation two, the triples share only one endpoint value . Conditional on it, their other observations are independent. The probability that either triple's central observation is a turning point isIt follows that , so this covariance is . Combining all terms for givesThe standardized count is approximately standard normal for large , by a central limit theorem for bounded 2-dependent indicators. A two-sided randomness test rejects for large absolute values ofToo few turns suggests persistent movement, while too many suggests alternation. Exact rank-permutation calibration is possible at small . Ties invalidate the continuous-rank probabilities unless their handling is specified. The test probes this feature of randomness; nonrejection does not establish independence.