Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 27 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write the surplus process in the classical risk model as , with positive independent claims. Condition on the first claim time, which has exponential distribution of rate . If that claim occurs at , the available capital is and survival requires its size not to exceed that capital. The independent future process then givesPut and change variables . We obtainThe convolution of bounded with the integrable density is continuous; differentiation of this expression is therefore justified. It proves the survival version of the ruin integro-differential equation:
The density is a hyperexponential distribution with mixture weights and exponential rates . Its total integral is one and its mean isThe relative safety loading means . Substitution of gives and .
Set . Differentiating in its equivalent form gives . The survival equation becomesApply the constant-coefficient operator , where . Since and ,Expanding and cancelling yields . Thus .
Positive loading also fixes the limiting boundary value . Indeed the aggregate-claims process minus premium income tends to minus infinity almost surely by the strong law of large numbers. Its supremum over all time is consequently finite almost surely, since paths have finitely many jumps on bounded intervals. The probability that this supremum exceeds tends to zero. Hence . At zero, the given value is , and the integral equation supplies the extra condition . Thereforeso and . The nonruin probability isThis is the two-exponential-mixture survival probability. It increases from to and satisfies the original integral equation, not just the differentiated equation; the zero-capital derivative condition prevents introducing extraneous solutions.