Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Discarding zero observations and resolving ties is unnecessary with probability one under the stated independent continuous model. Rank the absolute observations from to , let be the rank of , and form the positive Wilcoxon signed-rank statisticReject the null hypothesis for large . Under symmetry about zero, each sign is a fair independent binary variable, independent of all the absolute values. To see this independence, for every measurable positive set , symmetry gives . Independence of observations then gives independence of the whole sign vector from the absolute-value vector. Conditional on those absolute values, relabeling by rank therefore givesThe null distribution is consequently independent of the unknown symmetric shape. Its probability generating function is , so the coefficient of gives the exact probability of . Choose an upper critical value with null tail probability at most the desired level, or randomize at the boundary to obtain that level exactly. The observed upper-tail probability is an exact one-sided p-value. A positive translation raises each Walsh average, as established below, so this upper-tail rule has the correct direction against positive centers for every fixed symmetric shape.
The independent-sign representation provesThe asymptotic null distribution, stated without proof, isThis supplies the usual upper normal distribution critical value when exact calculation is inconvenient; for the discrete upper tail , use in the continuity correction.
For exact equivalence with the proposed statistic, reorder the observations so . Partition the unordered pairs, including diagonals, by the member with larger absolute value. The block belonging to consists of the pairs with an earlier member and its diagonal pair. For an earlier member , the strict inequality means the sign of is the sign of ; the diagonal sum has that same sign. Thus the entire block supplies exactly positive averages when , and none otherwise. Summing the blocks provesThe two tests therefore have exactly the same statistic, critical values and p-values, not merely the same limiting distribution. The Walsh averages are dependent, so their positivity indicators must not instead be treated as an independent binomial sample. For a translation of any null-symmetric sample, every Walsh average increases by ; their positive count is nondecreasing, which also verifies the direction of the one-sided test.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 42 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let . Under the symmetric continuous null hypothesis, positive and negative signs have probability and zeros have probability zero. For the sign test, take and reject for small values: under the null. Choose with ; randomization at the next value attains exact size if desired. The lower tail is appropriate for .
For the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, rank increasingly and put . Continuous observations have no absolute-value ties almost surely. Conditional on the absolute values, the signs are independent fair signs because symmetry makes the sign independent of magnitude. Hence has the distribution of for independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter . Again reject in the lower tail, using this exact subset-sum distribution or a normal approximation. Independence gives the requested null moments:For a symmetric kernel of fixed order , a one-sample U-statistic is . State the U-statistic central limit theorem: if , , and , then . The nondegeneracy condition is important.
For , its order-two U-statistic satisfies the exact Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic identityTo prove it, in an unordered pair the sign of the sum is the sign of whichever observation has larger absolute value. Counting the pairs for which a positive observation is larger contributes its rank minus one; its own positive-sign indicator supplies the remaining one.
Write for the distribution function of under the null. Symmetry gives andThe probability integral transform makes uniform on , so . Therefore . The centred is and is negligible on the scale of . Combining the exact decomposition and its mean givesThe lower-tail approximate level- rejection rule compares this standardized statistic with ; a half-unit continuity correction can refine discrete-tail calculations.
Walsh average 2026-10-14
The Walsh averages of a sample are for , including the diagonal pairs. If the absolute observations are distinct and nonzero, order them as . Among the pairs whose larger absolute observation is , every sum has the sign of . Hence the number of positive Walsh averages is exactly , the positive Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic. This proves equivalence of the corresponding tests; the Walsh averages themselves are generally dependent.