Absorbing four-ball Ehrenfest chain
ID: absorbing-four-ball-ehrenfest-chain
Stop the four-ball Ehrenfest urn model upon reaching count zero or four. From count , the transitions are to with probability and to with probability . First-step analysis with absorbing boundary values gives the displayed vector of probabilities of absorption at zero and vector of expected hitting times of either endpoint. For instance, and , with , give . From any interior state, absorption has probability at least within two steps; the resulting geometric tail bound proves both almost-sure absorption and finiteness of the expectations.
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