The Ehrenfest urn model moves one uniformly chosen ball between two boxes at each step. For balls, the count in one box is a Markov chain on . Its stationary distribution is , and detailed balance makes it a reversible Markov chain. The chain has period two, but its mean recurrence time to the all-in-one-box state is still .
Stop the four-ball Ehrenfest urn model upon reaching count zero or four. From count , the transitions are to with probability and to with probability . First-step analysis with absorbing boundary values gives the displayed vector of probabilities of absorption at zero and vector of expected hitting times of either endpoint. For instance, and , with , give . From any interior state, absorption has probability at least within two steps; the resulting geometric tail bound proves both almost-sure absorption and finiteness of the expectations.
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