Concentration of a beta prior near zero

ID: concentration-of-a-beta-prior-near-zero

For , direct integration of its probability density function gives the displayed tail for . Increasing strictly decreases every such tail probability, and converges in probability to zero as . Its mean is and its variance is ; both decrease for . For the variance, logarithmic differentiation gives in that range.
After successes in conditionally independent Bernoulli trials, Beta-binomial conjugacy gives posterior mean . Its derivative with respect to is negative, while the weight assigned to the prior mean is increasing for .

New to topics? Read the docs here!