First ascent in independent continuous observations

ID: first-ascent-in-independent-continuous-observations

For independent and identically distributed random variables with a continuous probability distribution, let be the index of the first increase. The event requires the first observations to be decreasing; symmetry among their possible strict orders gives probability for . Subtracting successive tails gives the displayed mass function for . The tails tend to zero, so is finite almost surely. The tail-sum formula for expectation gives , independently of the continuous sampling law.

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