 Solution

A warmer troposphere does not imply a warmer stratosphere: increased carbon dioxide can cool the middle and upper stratosphere by enhancing infrared emission. One direct kinetic effect is slower temperature-dependent destruction in the Chapman cycle, tending to increase upper-stratospheric ozone. Two indirect chemical effects can have the opposite sign. If the entry atmospheric cold trap warms, it can admit more water; reaction with an electronically excited oxygen atom then supplies more of the HOx family, enhancing catalytic ozone loss. In cold polar air, changes in water and temperature can favour polar stratospheric clouds, whose surfaces activate halogen reservoirs and can enhance ozone destruction when sunlight returns. These are conditional pathways, not a universal sign for total ozone: cold-trap temperature and circulation, halogen abundance and altitude all matter. Methane oxidation can also supply stratospheric water.^[ref]