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ID: past-exam-of-the-digital-social-research-statistics-core-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/4/solution
Past exam of the digital social research: statistics core course of the University of Oxford 2023 4 Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
The ordinary least squares fit estimates the conditional mean of the continuous safety response as a linear function of the income coding:The regression coefficient for income is positive. Since larger response values mean greater safety, one additional coded income unit corresponds to an estimated increase of safety-scale units in the fitted mean. Following the question's stated units, a unit is a £10,000 income step. The observed coding also uses income bands with open end categories, so this is a linear trend per coded band step; it is not evidence of a known constant effect for every extra pound, especially within the open top band. The output's abbreviated variable label does not override the stated units.
The intercept is the fitted mean at income code zero. It is estimated as , but zero is outside the observed income codes, so that value is an extrapolated model baseline, not an observed estimate for a particular income category. Its small p-value tests a zero intercept; it is not the main test of the income association.
For the income coefficient, the standard error is . The reported test statistic and two-sided test giveproviding strong evidence against the null hypothesis of zero linear slope under the stated model assumptions. A Student t confidence interval, using residual statistical degrees of freedom, isThis is an interval for the population linear coefficient under the model, not an interval containing of individual safety scores. The large-sample estimate is precise enough to detect a positive association, but that does not establish substantial individual predictive power.
The coefficient of determination is : the fitted line accounts for about of the in-sample variation about the response sample mean. The adjusted coefficient of determination is about . Thus income alone explains very little of the observed variation, despite the small slope p-value. The residual standard error of response units describes substantial scatter about the fitted line. This is an estimated residual standard deviation, rather than the standard error of the slope or a complete individual prediction interval.
The overall F-test has on statistical degrees of freedom and . With one predictor and an intercept, it tests the same zero-slope hypothesis as the coefficient Student's t-test; , up to rounding. It is not an additional independent confirmation. In this simple linear regression, the Pearson correlation coefficient has the slope's sign and magnitude , another description of the weak linear association.
The regression uses complete observations and estimates two coefficients, giving residual statistical degrees of freedom. The deletion of observations is complete-case analysis; extending its conclusions to the full target population requires suitable assumptions about the missing-data mechanism. Classical reported standard errors also rely on an adequate linear conditional mean, independent errors and homoscedasticity; a normal linear model gives the finite-sample Student t-distribution and F-test calibration, while large-sample approximations can justify similar tests under weaker distributional assumptions. The printed summary alone does not establish these assumptions. Regression diagnostics and, where appropriate, heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors address different parts of that assessment.
Finally, this unadjusted observational study estimates an association. Other covariates, such as age or experience status, may be related to both income and reported safety. Without additional design or causal identification assumptions, the positive fitted slope does not establish that increasing income would cause an increase in safety.
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