Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/iii/paper-57/3/b/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 57 3 b Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
With susceptibility independent of size and infectivity proportional to size, define . The farm-size stratified SIR model isAn infectious size- farm has next-generation column . Its sole nonzero eigenvalue gives the basic reproduction numberagain equal to the comparison SIR model.
Since every susceptible farm experiences the same force of infection, all ratios remain fixed. For a representative initial seed, and , uniqueness of the differential equations gives , , for all time. Consequently andFor this representative seed, the heterogeneous and homogeneous epidemics coincide exactly, and both susceptible and infected farm means stay at . This is the overlapping middle-column sketch above, not merely an approximation based on equal reproduction numbers.
With a nonrepresentative seed the susceptible mean remains its initial value, but the infected mean need not. The influx of new infectives has the constant susceptible mean, soThus it is pulled toward while incidence continues. Infectivity variation alone does not selectively remove large susceptible farms. The exact homogeneous reduction depends on the representative initial condition; specifying only and does not determine a trajectory for every possible seed.
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