Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2003/iii/paper-41/1/i/solution

For the mean parameter , the log-likelihood is . Its derivative is , positive below and negative above it. Therefore is the unique maximum-likelihood estimator.
The exponential distribution has mean and variance . The central limit theorem gives the pivot
Let for fixed . For , the event is exactly
Both denominators are then positive, so the algebra neither reverses the ordering nor changes the parameter domain. Taking probabilities and using continuity of the limiting normal distribution proves the exponential-mean confidence interval by pivot inversion has coverage probability tending to . This is inversion of the pivot with the true mean in its denominator; it is not the ordinary symmetric Wald interval centered at . For a small sample with , the displayed finite positive upper endpoint is not valid, although the large-sample claim is unaffected.

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