Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/ib/paper-1/22h/solution

The directed positive-transition graph gives the communicating classes , and . The first and last classes are closed; is open. In particular the PDF's fourth row has all six entries equal to . The converted TeX incorrectly drops the last entry; that incomplete row is not a transition distribution.
The finite irreducible closed class reaches state six almost surely. For example, from every state in there is a uniformly positive probability of hitting six within a bounded number of steps, so the probability of avoiding it for successive blocks tends to zero. Put , with and . First-step conditioning at states two and four gives
Solving and yields , with .
Starting in state three, the chain remains in . In the order its transition matrix is
Its characteristic polynomial is . Thus, by the Cayley-Hamilton theorem, is a linear combination of . The initial values are , , and . Solving for the three coefficients gives
The limiting value agrees with the state-six probability of the stationary distribution of this closed class.

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