 Solution

Let $n$ be the number allocated to each arm and test equality of the two reconviction probabilities, with a specified target difference as the alternative. For equal independent binomial arms, put $\bar{p}=(p_A+p_B)/2$, $\Delta =p_A-p_B>0$, $v_0=2\bar{p}(1-\bar{p})$ and $v_1=p_A(1-p_A)+p_B(1-p_B)$. Under the null the rejection boundary for ${\hat{p}}_A-{\hat{p}}_B$ is approximately $z_{\ast }\sqrt{v_0/n}$; under the planning alternative its mean is $\Delta$ and variance is $v_1/n$. statistical power 0.8 is obtained approximately by requiringThus the sample size for comparing two proportions iswhere $z_q={\Phi }^{-1}(q)$, $z_{\ast }=z_{1-\alpha /2}$ for a two-sided test, or $z_{1-\alpha }$ for a prespecified one-sided superiority test. With $p_A=2/3$ and $p_B=1/3$, this simplifies toFor illustration only, at $\alpha =0.05$ this gives 35 per arm, 70 total, for a two-sided test, or 27 per arm, 54 total, for a one-sided test. No unique numerical count is specified until alpha and sidedness are fixed. These are normal planning approximations; an exact requirement can be checked by summing the probabilities, from the two independent binomial distributions, of all tables in an exact test's rejection region and increasing $n$ until statistical power is at least 0.8.

This calculation detects a treatment difference when the effect equals the proposed target. It does not promise 80% statistical power to establish that the reduction is at least that target via a confidence bound when the true effect lies exactly at the target boundary. Such a different testing objective needs a separately specified null and planning alternative. Complete follow-up and ascertainment by intention-to-treat analysis are also required.