Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2007/ib/paper-4/19c/ii/solution

Let . Differentiating the log-likelihood in gives
For this changes from positive to negative at , so
To find its bias, substitute the model and use the orthogonal fit directions and , obtaining
The three expectations are , , and , respectively: and . Hence , giving the unbiased estimator
With , a zero residual sum of squares is a probability-zero event in the model. For that exceptional dataset the likelihood is unbounded as , rather than having a maximum at a positive variance. In the intercept-only case , the corresponding unbiased multiplier is for .

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