Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-34/4/c/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 34 4 c Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The hitting time is a stopping time for the natural filtration, because . The integer-valued increments are at most one. A path started at zero therefore cannot reach or exceed without first visiting , soDefine . It is nonnegative and integrable: . Moreover,The indicator function is -measurable, and is independent of with zero expected value. Taking conditional expectation therefore proves directly that is a nonnegative martingale.
The general result used here is that a nonnegative discrete-time martingale has a finite almost-sure limit; this is the martingale convergence theorem, since bounds its L1 norm. On it follows that converges finitely. A convergent sequence of integers is eventually constant, so would eventually be zero on this event.
However, the independent events all have the same strictly positive probability. The second Borel-Cantelli lemma says that they occur infinitely often almost surely. This contradicts eventual constancy on any positive-probability subset of . ThusNotice that no lower bound on the negative increments was needed.
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