Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2009/iii/paper-39/4/i/solution

Treat the two-point prior for as independent of the driving Brownian motion. On a partition , conditionally on , the increments of are independent normal distributions with means and variances . Their likelihood ratio is
Thus every partition containing gives the same Bayesian posterior, depending only on the endpoint. Refine partitions through a dense set of observation times. Continuity makes their increasing observation fields generate the full path field , and convergence of bounded conditional expectations preserves that Bayesian posterior. Equal prior probabilities and the Bayes' theorem consequently give
Its conditional mean drift is
This is the binary Brownian drift filter.
Define the observed innovation process
It is continuous and adapted to . For , independence of future Brownian motion increments from the past and the latent drift gives
For every , the tower property of conditional expectation gives
Since , conditional integration is justified. Subtracting the integrated identities shows . Thus is a square-integrable martingale. Subtracting a continuous finite variation process does not change quadratic variation, so . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion now proves that is a Brownian motion in the observation filtration. Therefore

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