Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2010/iii/paper-36/1/c/solution

Conditional on the success probability, the count has binomial distribution. Integrating its likelihood under the uniform prior distribution, or equivalently a beta distribution with parameters , gives
The prior predictive distribution is therefore uniform over the possible counts. Excluding the single point does not alter this integral because a continuous prior distribution gives that point zero probability. This calculation is the marginalization underlying Beta-binomial conjugacy.

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