Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2012/ia/paper-2/11f/ii/solution

The geometric family law on the nonnegative integers has probability generating function
Its expected value is , so this is a geometric-offspring critical branching process. Starting from , verify the rational iterate by induction. If , then
which has the same form with replaced by . Thus, for ,
The stated disk is the actual power-series convergence domain, not merely a place where the rational continuation can be evaluated. Its simple pole is at .
The extinction probability at generation is the constant coefficient:
For later use, expanding the remaining geometric series gives
In particular . At the initial population is one deterministically; its PGF is , and the displayed radius involving is used only for .

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