Geometric-offspring critical branching process ($G(s)=1/(2-s)$)

The offspring probabilities $P(K=j)=2^{-j-1}$ for $j\ge 0$ have expected value one. For one initial individual, the branching-process generating-function iteration givesFor $n\ge 1$ the PGF disk is $|s|<1+1/n$; $G_0(s)=s$ separately. Conditional on survival, the population is positive geometric with success probability $1/(n+1)$, leading to the exponential limit of surviving geometric branching.

For the stated critical geometric offspring law, the conditional upper tail is exactly $[n/(n+1){]}^{\lfloor nx\rfloor }$ for $x\ge 0$. Its logarithm tends to $-x$, proving an exponential distribution limit of rate one without a transform continuity theorem. The unconditional mass at zero tends to one, so survival conditioning changes the relevant limiting population scale.