Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2012/ia/paper-2/11f/iii/solution

For , substitute in the probability generating function. The moment-generating function of is
The domain follows from convergence of the generating series; at or above that positive threshold the expectation diverges, even though a rational continuation can be written.
Conditioning on survival, the probability mass function from part (ii) becomes a positive-integer geometric distribution:
Its conditional moment-generating function is , tending to for fixed . We can prove the required limit directly, without invoking a continuity theorem. Set . For every , the strict upper tail is exactly
Since and ,
At both tails equal one. This is the exponential limit of surviving geometric branching. Conditioning is essential: the unconditional variable has probability of being zero, whereas the rare surviving population has size of order .

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