Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2012 / ia / Paper 2 / 11F / iii / Solution

For $n\ge 1$, substitute $s=e^{t/n}$ in the probability generating function. The moment-generating function of $X_n/n$ isThe domain follows from convergence of the generating series; at or above that positive threshold the expectation diverges, even though a rational continuation can be written.

Conditioning on survival, the probability mass function from part (ii) becomes a positive-integer geometric distribution:Its conditional moment-generating function is $e^{t/n}/[n+1-n{e}^{t/n}]$, tending to $1/(1-t)$ for fixed $t<1$. We can prove the required limit directly, without invoking a continuity theorem. Set $r_n=n/(n+1)$. For every $x\ge 0$, the strict upper tail is exactlySince $\log r_n=-1/n+O(n^{-2})$ and $\lfloor nx\rfloor /n\to x$,At $x=0$ both tails equal one. This is the exponential limit of surviving geometric branching. Conditioning is essential: the unconditional variable has probability $n/(n+1)$ of being zero, whereas the rare surviving population has size of order $n$.