Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-28/3/solution

In the classical risk model write , where the Poisson process has rate and is independent of the claim sizes. Define the ruin time and ultimate ultimate ruin probability by
The relative safety loading is , so . The adjustment coefficient is the nonzero positive solution
Existence and uniqueness follow from the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient. Explicitly, has derivative at zero and is strictly convex for positive claims. The assumed divergence of makes it cross zero once at a positive . When , an exponential lower bound from any positive tail event shows that . In particular is inside the finite-transform domain, not at its endpoint.
Put . Replacing in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model yields
By the tail integral formula for moments, . Therefore this is the defective renewal equation
The original kernel has mass . For the exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel, set
Multiplying by gives the required proper renewal equation
To verify that this is a probability renewal kernel, Tonelli theorem gives, for in the finite-transform domain,
The adjustment coefficient equation consequently implies . Its expected value is
It is finite because is interior to the finite-transform domain and is positive because the strict convex crossing has derivative .
We quote the key renewal theorem in the following form: for a nonarithmetic distribution of positive increments with finite positive mean , and a directly Riemann integrable nonnegative function , the locally bounded solution of satisfies . It has renewal representation ; this follows by iterating the equation, since the probability that arbitrarily many positive increments have sum at most a fixed tends to zero.
Here is absolutely continuous, and hence nonarithmetic distribution, even if the original claim law has atoms. The function is continuous. Choose with . The Markov inequality gives , and hence . Continuity on compact intervals and this exponential bound make the upper Riemann sums finite with uniformly vanishing tails, proving direct Riemann integrability.
A further application of Tonelli theorem evaluates the forcing integral:
All hypotheses of the key renewal theorem are now checked, so the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor is
This proves the requested Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic, including its constant.
For the two-component hyperexponential distribution, conditioning on the chosen exponential component gives
Its moment-generating function and derivative are
The moment-generating function diverges at , while the derivative of the adjustment equation at zero is negative. Strict convexity therefore places its unique positive adjustment coefficient in
The adjustment equation, divided by , becomes
Using this identity to subtract from gives
Thus the asymptotic constant in terms of and is
The denominator is positive on the identified domain. If desired, is the smaller root of ; the other algebraic root lies outside the positive finite-transform interval and is not an adjustment coefficient.

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