Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-34/1/g/solution

Here for every breed, so and
The Bayesian model evidence increases towards its supremum as . Thus
For a Pareto distribution, . The limiting empirical prior, and each corresponding posterior distribution, collapses onto .
The boundary result is coherent within the assumed model: the observations favour the smallest allowed upper limits. Nevertheless, reporting exact concentration on a prespecified bound is overconfident for finite data and ignores hyperparameter uncertainty. A proper hyperprior on , sensitivity analysis for , or a scientifically justified restriction on concentration avoids treating this limit as certain biological knowledge.

New to topics? Read the docs here!