Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-35/1/e/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 35 1 e Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The posterior predictive probability averages the conditional probability over the Bayesian posterior. Using its gamma distribution density,For fixed and ,Consequently , and both tend to . This is reasonable because the posterior mean tends to the observed rate and the posterior variance tends to zero. Averaging then approaches evaluating it at the estimated rate: with abundant observations, predictive uncertainty about the rate vanishes.
New to topics? Read the docs here!