Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2015/iii/paper-40/3/c/solution

Use the conditional second-moment matrix from the PDF. By part (b), the filtration is finite-state at every finite time. On a time- atom let be the successor price vectors and their conditional probabilities. Then and
Positive definiteness gives rank , so . Hence , and the successor vectors have linear independence.
We use the finite-horizon fundamental theorem of asset pricing in deflator form: an arbitrage-free finite market admits a strictly positive adapted process , with , such that is a martingale. Equivalently, on every step,
Fix a finite horizon containing the step in question. On the parent atom, write on successor and . Then
The proposed values satisfy precisely the same equation:
Because the have linear independence and the are positive, this linear system has a unique solution. Thus , proving
This is the positive regression deflator in a complete finite market. It also proves the suggested conclusion: with and ,
Hence is a strictly positive martingale deflator. Finite-state structure makes these expectations integrable on each finite horizon. Positive definiteness alone would not ensure positivity of the regression factor; market completeness and the positive deflator are essential.

New to topics? Read the docs here!