Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2017/iii/paper-322/1/ii/solution

Use conditional independence at the common age . A system with a red giant and a second evolved component is either a pair of red giants, with conditional probability , or a red giant and a white dwarf, with conditional probability . The factor two counts which component is the white dwarf; a pair of red giants is counted only once. Since , the unconditional probability of this event is
This event is contained in the event of at least one red giant. Therefore the requested conditional probability, among systems selected for containing a red giant, is
In particular the denominator is a fraction of systems, not the individual-star fraction .

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