Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2019/ia/paper-2/9f/a/solution

The Kolmogorov axioms for a probability measure are nonnegativity, normalization , and countable additivity on pairwise disjoint events. For , conditional probability is defined by
Because the events are pairwise disjoint and their union is , countable additivity gives the law of total probability
For any with , the definition of conditional probability and this identity give Bayes theorem:

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