Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/undated/prelims/mathematics-iii-resit/6/c/iii/solution

For a geometric distribution on positive integers, the probability generating function is . Conditional averaging over the red die yields
As a power series, its exact domain of absolute convergence is
Indeed the slowest decaying component has failure probability , so . At , the terms of the power series fail to tend to zero; outside that disk they grow. All six component series converge inside it. In particular, the probability generating function is defined on the usual real interval , with . The rational expression beyond the convergence disk is only an algebraic continuation, not the defining expected value.

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