Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Oxford / Undated / Prelims / Mathematics III resit / 6 / c / iii / Solution

For a geometric distribution on positive integers, the probability generating function is $ps/[1-(1-p)s]$. Conditional averaging over the red die yieldsAs a power series, its exact domain of absolute convergence isIndeed the slowest decaying component has failure probability $5/6$, so $\mathbb{P}(T=t)\ge (1/36)(5/6{)}^{t-1}$. At $|s|=6/5$, the terms of the power series fail to tend to zero; outside that disk they grow. All six component series converge inside it. In particular, the probability generating function is defined on the usual real interval $0\le s\le 1$, with $G_T(1)=1$. The rational expression beyond the convergence disk is only an algebraic continuation, not the defining expected value.