Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-year-1-of-the-natural-sciences-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/paper-2/4/solution

The number of successes has a binomial distribution. Each arrangement of successes and failures has probability by independence, and the binomial coefficient counts the arrangements. Therefore
The final equality is the binomial theorem. Writing as a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables gives its expectation and variance: , . Thus the matching normal distribution has
The normal approximation is appropriate when both expected counts and are sufficiently large; large alone is insufficient if is extremely close to zero or one.
For the guessing student, , , . Therefore the expected number of correct answers is , and , . The inclusive integer range becomes after the continuity correction. Standardizing the normal distribution gives
Here , and the last step uses the supplied bound. The approximate probability is . The normal approximation provides the requested conclusion; as a separate check, summing the five exact binomial probabilities gives approximately , also exceeding one half.

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