Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-i-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2012/o/o2/b/ii/solution

The future mean response is . By invariance of maximum likelihood estimation, its estimator is the fitted mean
Its sampling variance is the quadratic form of the coefficient covariance matrix with :
This estimator is unbiased because each fitted coefficient is unbiased. The future error does not enter the estimator of the mean, so its independent variance is not part of this expression.

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