Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2006/o/5/solution
Past exam of the options II course of the University of Oxford 2006 O 5 Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
A possibly randomized statistical test has rejection probability after observing . Its statistical power at parameter is , and its test size is the supremum of that statistical power over the null parameter set.
For simple hypotheses with densities , the Neyman-Pearson lemma states that a level- test is most powerful if it rejects where , accepts where , and randomizes on equality to obtain null rejection probability . Here is chosen to reach that test size. To prove optimality, let be this test and any test of level at most . Pointwise,Integrating and using gives . This proves maximal statistical power. For , equality also forces any equally powerful test to use all its allowed test size and agree with the indicated decisions away from the likelihood-ratio tie set, up to null sets.
For the Poisson sample, and, for every fixed , the likelihood ratio isIt increases strictly with . Choose an integer so that , and reject for , with boundary rejection probabilityThis has exact test size . Its rejection ordering and calibration do not depend on which is selected, so the lemma proves it uniformly most powerful for the whole one-sided alternative. Randomization is generally needed for an exact arbitrary test size in a discrete model.
For the approximate design, the central limit theorem under gives critical sum . Under , the sum is approximately normal with mean and variance . Target statistical power therefore givesor . Thus the requested design expression isRound upward to obtain an integer design. This is a normal approximation to the requested statistical power, rather than an exact discrete sample-size guarantee; the exact Poisson test above provides its exact calibration.
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