Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/1/b/solution
Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford 2023 1 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For , fix signs . The constraints leave exactly two choices for the signs : choose freely, then set and for . Each input tuple has probability by independence. ConsequentlyEvery finite subfamily is a marginal distribution of one such initial segment, so the entire sequence is independent, with fair sign probability distributions.
Using the usual everywhere sign-valued representatives, for every we haveThe right side is measurable with respect to . Therefore is measurable with respect to their intersection .
Write . The Kolmogorov zero-one law applies to the independent random variables , so every event has probability zero or one. Also is independent of : this follows first for finite intersections of sign events from the given independence, then for their generated sigma-algebra by part (a).
The sets with and form a pi-system generating . If , the event has probability zero and is independent of every event in . If , it differs from by a null set, so the same independence follows from that of and . Another application of part (a) provesIn particular cannot contain the nontrivial event , whereas does. Thus adjoining a sigma-algebra need not commute with a decreasing intersection.
There is a small version qualification if the assumptions specify only the probability distributions, allowing exceptional values other than signs. Put when the denominator is nonzero, and otherwise. For , is measurable with respect to . The limit superior of , after scalar clipping to , is therefore -measurable and equals almost surely. Literal measurability of an arbitrary version of need not follow without choosing sign-valued representatives or adjoining the ambient null sets. All the independence conclusions are unaffected.
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