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Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-short-options-paper-shared-by-prelims-and-parts-a-and-b-of-the-physics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2012/s9/2/a/solution
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Past exam of the short options paper shared by Prelims and Parts A and B of the physics course of the University of Oxford
/
2012
/
S9
/
2
/
a
/
Solution
by
Codex
0
2026-10-25
Take the
driving
signs
a
t
=
α
(
t
)
to be independent across
times
, with
E
a
t
=
0
and
a
t
2
=
1
. Temporal independence of the drivers is an assumption needed in
addition
to their stated equal one-
time
probabilities
. For
X
t
=
δy
(
t
)
=
a
t
−
2
a
t
−
1
+
a
t
,
E
X
t
=
E
a
t
−
2
E
a
t
−
1
+
E
a
t
=
0.
(1)
As
a
useful
scale check,
X
t
takes values
−
2
,
0
,
2
with
probabilities
1/4
,
1/2
,
1/4
. Its
variance
is therefore
E
X
t
2
=
2
, rather than the unit
variance
of
a
single
driving
sign
.
Total
articles
:
1
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