Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-simulation-and-statistical-programming-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/1/b/iii/solution
Past exam of the simulation and statistical programming course of the University of Oxford 2023 1 b iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
With a fixed budget of independent proposal trials, the accepted count has binomial distribution with success probability . HenceFor , the central limit theorem gives the one-sided approximationUse , since now only the lower tail of the accepted count matters. Requiring and solving the resulting quadratic equation in gives the one-sided normal approximation for a rejection proposal budgetEquivalently, before rounding, this is . For the value in (a)(iii),When , every proposal is accepted and exactly. Otherwise the positive safety margin above allows for random fluctuations in the number accepted. The average cost in (b)(ii) describes stopping at the th acceptance; this answer chooses a deterministic budget that reaches that acceptance with approximately probability.
The approximation requires a sufficiently accurate normal distribution approximation to the binomial distribution. An exact budget can instead be found from its tail probabilities. Also, a chance of enough accepted draws and approximate precision conditional on obtaining them are separate claims: their intersection is not automatically a event.
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