Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2014/3/a/ii/solution

An equal-tailed credible interval allocates equal posterior probability to its two excluded tails:
For a continuous strictly increasing posterior cumulative distribution function , the endpoints are and .
A highest posterior density interval instead includes the parameter values of greatest posterior density: there is a cutoff such that the retained region is a superlevel set of , of posterior mass . Every interior retained value has density at least as large as every excluded value, apart from possible ties. For a unimodal continuous density this is an interval; when both endpoints lie inside the support they have equal posterior density. For a multimodal posterior distribution, a highest-density region may be a union of intervals, rather than one interval. Equal tail probabilities and highest density are different criteria.

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